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Data submission and access may be somewhat different than existing CDIAC processes, but NCEI will make every effort to ensure that it is as easy as possible for researchers to submit, locate and retrieve data.We wish to express our gratitude to the Department of Energy for sponsoring the center for the past 34 years and NOAA and NASA for devoting financial resources and expertise to keep the functions of an ocean carbon depository in place.Following up on Christian’s post [link fixed] on the topic, I’d like to offer a few thoughts of my own.In BDA, we express the idea that a noninformative prior is a placeholder: you can use the noninformative prior to get the analysis started, then if your posterior distribution is less informative than you would like, or if it does not make sense, you can go back and add prior information.The nuclear-weapon states do not intend to abolish their nuclear weapons.They promised to do so when they signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) of 1970.It simply refers to our current evidence, but it is statistically unlikely that we will have found the literal earliest example of a species or an occupation.So conclusions about “earliest” are always changing, moving back as more evidence is found.
A plan to integrate the content of CDIAC’s ocean carbon web sites and services is being developed, with a target completion date of March 31, 2017.
Here are four examples of the dangers of noninformative priors: 1.
From section 3 of my 1996 paper, Bayesian Model-Building by Pure Thought: estimating a convex, increasing function with a flat prior on the function values (subject to the constraints). As discussed in the article, the innocuous-seeming prior contains a huge amount of information as you increase the number of points at which the curve is estimated. The classic 8-schools example: that is, any hierarchical model.
Effective January 1, 2017, Alex Kozyr will become an Affiliate Staff member for NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) to support ocean carbon data management and provide customer support similar to what he has done at CDIAC.
He will also assist in the transition of ocean carbon data management to NCEI.